Economic Survey 2018: Formal jobs far more than current official estimates

Ther are 220 million employees in the economy, out of which 75 million workers enjoying social security benefits

Formal jobs are much more than what the current official estimates, the Economic Survey 2018 released on Monday said.

The Survey, analysing the data from goods and services tax (GST) and newly available digitised government data, said there were a total of 220 million (22 crore) employees in the economy, out of which 75 million (7.5 crore) workers enjoying social security benefits at present.

The Survey defined formal employment in two parts — First, those receiving social security benefits from Employees’ State Insurance Corporation and Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation. Second, those receiving it from firms under the GST regime.

“From a social security perspective, formal employment amounts to 60 million (6 crore), to which we must add an estimated 15 million (1.5 crore) of government workers (excluding defence), for a total of 75 million (7.5 crore),” the survey said.

From a tax perspective, formal employment is 112 million (11.2 crore) and government employment yields a total count of 127 million (12.7 crore), it noted. “Notwithstanding the caveats regarding the specific numbers, the broad conclusion is likely to be robust: formal payrolls may be considerably greater than currently believed,” the survey said.

The Survey added that when formality was defined in terms of social security provisions like EPFO or ESIC, the formal sector payroll was found to be about 31 per cent of the non-agricultural workforce. When formality was defined in terms of being part of the GST net, such formal sector payroll share stood at 53 per cent, it said.

“Even so, it is clear that providing India’s young and burgeoning labour force with good, high-productivity jobs will remain a pressing medium-term challenge. An effective response will encompass multiple levers and strategies, and above all, creating a climate for rapid economic growth on the strength of the only two truly sustainable engines — private investment and exports,” according to the Survey.

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Economic Survey 2018 is a flagship annual document of the Finance Ministry that reviews the overall state of the economy

Live Budget 2018 : The Economic Survey 2017-18, tabled in Parliament on Monday, forecasts gross domestic product growth for 2018-19 at 7-7.5 per cent, compared with a forecast of 6.75 per cent in the current fiscal year.

“A series of major reforms undertaken over the past year will allow real GDP growth to reach 6.75 percent this fiscal and will rise to 7.0 to 7.5 per cent in 2018-19, thereby re-instating India as the world‘s fastest growing major economy,” an official statement said, after the tabling of the survey, adding that “the reform measures undertaken in 2017-18 can be strengthened further in 2018-19.

The survey said that due to the launch of ‘transformational’ Goods and Services Tax (GST), resolution of the long-festering Twin Balance Sheet (TBS) problem by sending the major stressed companies for resolution under the new Indian Bankruptcy Code, implementing a major recapitalization package to strengthen the public sector banks, further liberalisation of FDI and the export uplift from the global recovery, the economy began to accelerate in the second half of the year.

In a highlighted box titled “Ten New Facts on the Indian Economy”, the survey stated that there was a large increase in registered direct and indirect tax payers due to demonetization and GST respectively, and that formal non-agricultural payroll was much greater than earlier anticipated.

What is Economic Survey?

It is a flagship annual document of the Finance Ministry. It reviews the overall state of the economy in the last 12 months. In August last year, however, the government for the first time presented a mid-term economic survey.

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