PM Modi flashes victory sign as BJP takes lead in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh

The saffron party marched ahead of its rival as counting of votes progressed

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday flashed a victory sign after he arrived in Parliament, as the BJP pulled ahead of the Congress in trends for the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh assembly polls.

ALSO READ: Gujarat, Himachal election result LIVE: BJP leads in 105 seats; Cong at 75

Though early trends showed a close fight between the BJP and the Congress in Modi's home state Gujarat, the saffron party marched ahead of its rival as counting of votes progressed.

The BJP also appeared set to wrest power from the Congress in the hill state of Himachal Pradesh.

ALSO READ: Lessons from a narrow win: How Modi helped BJP avoid a disaster in Gujarat

The prime minister showed a victory sign after he arrived in Parliament to attend the winter session.

Parliament re-convened today after the weekend break.

Exit polls predict BJP win in UP, but Dalal St euphoria to fade away soon

Like Bihar elections, this event would also be forgotten by the markets within a week, analysts say

Exit polls have predicted a victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the key state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) that is being dubbed as the semi–final to the 2019 general elections, and appeared to be too close to call.

Over the past few sessions, the markets have been moving sideways, consolidating the 9% gain made thus far in calendar year 2017. Analysts say the outcome could create distractions (or positives) for the government and will be interpreted as a referendum on the government’s demonetisation drive.

Here is a quick compilation of what the leading market experts think about the possible outcome and its implication for the economy and markets:

Also Read : Election Results 2017

G. CHOKKALINGAM, FOUNDER & MANAGING DIRECTOR OF EQUINOMICS RESEARCH & ADVISORY

The exit polls have predicted significant improvement for the ruling party at the Centre. If this prediction becomes true, it could be sentimentally positive for the equity markets for a week or so. However, in our view, fundamentally speaking, whether the ruling party wins or loses, it doesn’t have significant relevance for the markets.

The ruling party has a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha to rule the country for the next two years, which is a long time for the stock markets. Of course, the elections to the UP state are relevant for attaining the goal of majority in the Rajya Sabha for the ruling party. However, most important point is that there is no solid economic reform (from the context of stock markets), which is pending for the majority support in the Rajya Sabha. Even the toughest one viz., GST, has already gone through all major hurdles.

Hence, the market valuation or individual stocks and continued flow from the FIIs would be the dominant factors, which would decide the course of market directions ultimately, rather than the “state elections outcome”. Therefore, like Bihar elections and the Budget, this event would also be forgotten by the equity markets within a week or so.

AMBIT CAPITAL

Our latest checks in Delhi suggest that policy-making in India is likely to continue being ad-hoc if the BJP emerges victorious in UP with no specific over-arching ideology informing economic decision-making. Moreover, expert opinion is likely to continue being given a low priority with political motives guiding economic decisions.

SAMIR ARORA, FOUNDER AND FUND MANAGER, HELIOS CAPITAL

We do not believe that outcome of state elections can be a big development for the market. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to win in UP (the only election that matters in this round, if at all). Even if BJP does not win, we don’t think that investors will project this to derive conclusions about 2019 national elections. If BJP wins as expected, the market will have more reasons to go up for sure CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL STORY

Assembly polls 2017: 12 reasons why fight in UP is between the BSP and BJP

This was a closely fought triangular contest, and the likeliest outcome is a hung assembly

Now that all the phases are of the Uttar Pradesh elections are over, the time has come for predictions. Several senior journalists, in my opinion, misused their influence by calling the election before the final phase of voting.

The observations I present here are based on travels in the state, evolving trends over the past three years (particularly in west UP) and conversations with a wide range of people (in person and over the phone). Let me start by presenting five reasons why UP is most probably headed towards a hung assembly.

This was not a ‘wave’ election. In the initial phases, the media tried to project an Akhilesh Yadav wave, in the latter phases, a Narendra Modi wave. But there was no ‘wave’ on the ground. Truth is, this was a seat to seat election and individual candidates, localised caste arithmetic and issues will determine the result.

ALSO READ: Election Results 2017 - Live

National issues like demonetisation will have an indirect impact. While not many may have voted directly on that issue, for castes like Jats and sections of non-Jatav Dalits who may have voted the BJP in 2014 and were already drifting away from the party for various reasons, demonetisation was the final nail in the coffin, leading to them snapping their ties or loyalty for the party. One is very uncertain about Banias, though. Many Banias, who are among the most loyal BJP voters, were very upset with demonetisation. However, whether that has resulted in voting elsewhere and to what extent is unclear. The community has been very silent this time. And in many parts, they didn’t even openly campaign for the BJP.

This was a closely fought triangular contest. Small shifts in vote percentages could affect a disproportionately high number of seats.

A gradual MBC consolidation outside of the three major parties in UP is taking place. It will have a limited impact on this election, but still, in an election fought so closely, each vote and each seat matters. Examples are the Nishad party, which will command a sizeable influence over the Nishad community in Deoria and Gorakhpur districts, and, to a much lesser extent, the Mahan Dal in Kasganj and a few neighbouring districts. Their varied influence will affect the BJP’s performance to some extent in at least 4-5 districts. However, the BJP’s alliance with the SBSP (Suheldev Bharat Samaj Party) and Apna Dal will help consolidate MBC votes in favour of BJP+ in other districts. This atomisation of UP politics is expected to grow over the next few years. Marginalised communities are rejecting ‘vanguardism’ of any party and organising themselves. (more)